SEVERE WEATHER 4 APRL 2011:
A cold front that is moving through the State from mid-morning to about 8 PM today places the entire State at a slight risk for severe weather, except for the extreme northeast corner which has a moderate risk.
The main risks from this system will be from damaging straight line winds, though there is a potential for hail and isolated tornados.
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA: There is an 80 percent chance for severe thunderstorms during the day today decreasing to a 40 percent chance for thunderstorms tonight. Tuesday through Friday calls for days being partly sunny to sunny and nights being partly cloudy to mostly clear with a slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday night.
Temperatures: Today: 85/47, Tuesday: 69/44, Wednesday: 77/62, Thursday: 81/67, Friday: 85/67.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: There is a slight risk of severe weather across the entire outlook area this afternoon and this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect the area today ahead of an approaching cold front. A few of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce damaging straight line winds. In addition, large hail and a tornado or two are possible across the area this afternoon and this evening. As the cold front moves through the area, it will be accompanied by a strong squall line with numerous thunderstorms, some of which will be strong to severe. The main threat from these thunderstorms will be damaging straight line winds though large hail and isolated tornadoes will remain possible. The most likely timing for severe weather appears to be in the afternoon and evening hours. The threat of severe weather should end by late evening as the front moves east of the area. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop in advance of the cold front by this morning through tonight. In addition, a gale watch is in effect for this evening through tonight for strong north winds after the frontal passage.
Small craft advisory conditions are expected to continue early Tuesday. Otherwise, hazardous weather is not anticipated Monday through Saturday.
The Pearl River at Bogalusa is currently at 18.3 feet (minor flood stage). Minor flood stage is from 18 to 21 feet. The river is expected to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow.
POTENTIAL IMPACT: Between 17 and 18.5 feet, woodlands and crop acreage along the river will be flooded
The Mississippi River at Red River Landing is currently at 52.02 feet (minor flood stage). Minor flood stage is from 49 to 55 feet. The river is expected to fall to and hover around 51.9 feet through Tuesday then fall to 51.5 feet by Friday and continue falling.
POTENTIAL IMPACT: Between 51 and 58 feet, all river islands along the reach from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge will be inundated. Recreational camps and river bottom farm land will be under water
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA: There is an 80 percent chance for severe thunderstorms during the day today decreasing to a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms tonight. Tuesday through Friday calls for days to be partly sunny to sunny and the nights to be partly cloudy to mostly clear with a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms Thursday night.
Temperatures: Today: 79/43, Tuesday: 70/45, Wednesday: 78/62, Thursday: 82/68, Friday: 85/69.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: A strong cold front over north Texas will drive rapidly to the southeast today. Winds will remain brisk from the south ahead of the front only to swing around to the northwest and increase. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning becoming likely this afternoon. Some of these storms may become severe with the main threat from winds and hail. In addition, storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning with area rainfall totals around one inch while two to three inches will be possible with stronger storms. This latest front is expected to move through southeast Texas during the afternoon hours and through south central Louisiana during the late afternoon hours. It will be much cooler tonight with skies clearing during the overnight hours. It will also be very windy over the coastal waters.
Drier and cooler air will stream into the region. Temperatures will begin to warm by Wednesday with the pattern continuing into the weekend. Another cold front is expected into the region on Monday.
The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City is currently at 5.51 feet (minor flood stage). Minor flood stage is 4 to 7 feet. The river is expected to hover around 5.5 and 5.2 feet through Friday then begin slowly falling.
POTENTIAL IMPACT: At 5 feet, floodwall gates should be closed by the 5 foot stage to protect against higher stages. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U. S. Coast Guard. The impact on river side industry will lessen as the river begins to recede.
CENTRAL LOUISIANA: There is a 90 percent chance for severe thunderstorms today decreasing to a 60 percent chance for thunderstorms tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, days will be partly sunny to sunny with nights being partly cloudy to mostly clear with a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms Thursday night.
Temperatures: Today: 78/41, Tuesday: 69/44, Wednesday: 78/61, Thursday: 82/68, Friday: 86/68.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: A strong cold front over north Texas will drive rapidly to the southeast today. Winds will remain brisk from the south ahead of the front only to swing around to the northwest and increase. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning becoming likely this afternoon. Some of these storms may become severe with the main threat from winds and hail. In addition, storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning with area rainfall totals around one inch, while two to three inches will be possible with stronger storms. This latest front is expected to move through southeast Texas during the afternoon hours and through south central Louisiana during the late afternoon hours. It will be much cooler tonight with skies clearing during the overnight hours. It will also be very windy over the coastal waters.
Drier and cooler air will stream into the region. Temperatures will begin to warm by Wednesday with the pattern continuing into the weekend. Another cold front is expected into the region on Monday.
NORTHERN LOUISIANA: There is an 80 percent chance for severe thunderstorms during the day today with tonight being mostly cloudy. Tuesday through Friday calls for days to be partly sunny to sunny and nights being partly cloudy to mostly clear except for a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms Thursday night.
Temperatures: Today: 75/39, Tuesday: 69/44, Wednesday: 77/59, Thursday: 81/64, Friday: 83/64.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Strong southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph can be expected early this morning across the four-state region. The winds will be associated with a strong pressure gradient between surface low pressure extending from the upper mid west into the southern Plains and high pressure across the Gulf Coast states. A cold front will be passing through the region during the day with the winds shifting to the northwest to north and remaining strong with speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. An upper level storm system will be moving across the central sections of the country today with the southern end of the trough axis sending the cold front southeast across the area. Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will be developing along and ahead of the boundary as it advances, affecting southeast Oklahoma and adjacent sections of northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas early to mid morning, followed by parts of south central Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and east Texas near mid day, and the remaining sections of south central Arkansas, parts of northwest and north central Louisiana and lower sections of northeast Texas in the afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms with the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds will occur early morning to mid morning with a greater chance of large hail, strong and damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in the late morning to afternoon across south central Arkansas into north Louisiana and parts of lower east Texas. By late afternoon the chance for severe thunderstorms will be very low since the front will clear the forecast area.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and during next weekend as a series of upper level disturbances move across the region. No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
The Mississippi River at Natchez, Mississippi is currently at 49.56 feet (Minor Flood Stage). Minor flood stage is from 48 to 51 feet. The river is expected to fall to 48.1 feet by Friday and continue to fall.
POTENTIAL IMPACT: Between 48 and 51 feet, Carthage Point Road on the Mississippi State side of the river becomes impassable. There are no significant impacts on the Louisiana State side at this stage.
Captain Tommy C. Boyett, LEM
Director, West Feliciana OHSEP
P.O. Box 796
9938 West Feliciana Parkway
St. Francisville, LA 70775
Cell (225) 245-4221
Office (225) 635-6428
Fax (225) 635-6996
tboyett@wfpso.org
tcboyett@gmail.com
wfpeoc@att.net
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