TROPICAL WEATHER:
As of 1 PM CDT, National Hurricane Center is reporting on three significant tropical systems listed below.
A. Tropical Depression Five is located at 27.8N and 86.8W, or about 230 miles southeast of New Orleans, moving northwest at 12mph. This general motion is forecast to continue today with a decrease in forward speed expected on Thursday. The system is projected to make landfall along the southeast Louisiana coastline early Thursday morning, possibly as a low-grade tropical storm. The potential impact from this system, based on current data, is 3 to 5 inches of rain between now and Friday with some localized rainfall of up to 8 inches. Also, winds of from 30 to 40 mph can also be expected with offshore winds being potentially higher. A flash flood watch is in effect for all of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Updates from National Weather Service are being provided to the Unified Command Group and, as a precaution, the State is conducting conference calls with the Southeast and Southwest Louisiana Hurricane Task Forces and will continue to conduct them as needed.
B. A low pressure system located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has become less organized this afternoon and development appears a little less likely due to strong upper-level winds. There is a medium chance, 50
Percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the north and north-northeast over the Atlantic.
C. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized. Significant development of this wave is not expected as it moves westward at about 15 mph. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA: Today there is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms during the day with an increase to 70 percent in the evening. Thursday there is a potential for tropical storm weather conditions. Friday has a 70 percent chance of heavy rain during the day with a decrease to 50 percent in the evening. Saturday and Sunday will have a 20-40 percent chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Today: 95/77, Thursday: 89/78, Friday: 89/78, Saturday: 95/78, Sunday: 95/78.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Tropical storm warnings and tropical storm wind warnings remain in effect for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi for Tropical Depression 5 today through Friday. Rain chances will increase with heavy rainfall possible and winds will strengthen today over coastal portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters. A flash flood watch will be in effect for the area beginning tonight. Heavy rain will be the most significant threat associated with the system as it moves across the region Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches, with isolated amounts of up to eight inches, are possible as the system moves slowly north through Friday. Additionally, gusty winds along with tides ranging from two to four feet above ground level may be possible as this system moves inland.
Saturday through Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. No widespread or organized severe weather is expected.
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA: Today there will be a 30 percent chance for thunderstorms throughout the day. Thursday has an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms with a decrease to 50 percent in the evening moving on into Friday. Saturday and Sunday is forecast to have a 20-30 percent slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Today: 97/79, Thursday: 95/78, Friday: 94/80, Saturday: 95/79, Sunday: 96/77.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Mostly dry weather is on tap for today across the forecast area as high pressure begins to lose its grip on the region. But high temperatures are again forecast to run in the mid to upper 90s. With dew point temperatures expected to be in the lower to mid 70s during the early afternoon, apparent temperatures will approach the heat advisory criteria of 108 degrees. Therefore a heat advisory will likely be issued for much of the area for this afternoon. Moisture associated with Tropical Depression Five is forecast to spread across the area by late this afternoon. Rain chances will be increasing near the coast from Grand Chenier eastward. The depression is forecast to move northwest across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning before turning northward and approaching the central Gulf Coast. The system is also forecast to strengthen and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast from Intracoastal City eastward. At this time it appears that tropical storm conditions are not likely over the region, although they will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon, mainly in gusts. Rainfall accompanying the system could be heavy at times over the Atchafalaya Basin, with storm total amounts averaging 2 to 3 inches. Locally higher amounts can be expected.
CENTRAL LOUISIANA: Today there will be a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms throughout the day. Thursday has an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms with a decrease to 50 percent in the evening moving on into Friday. Saturday and Sunday is forecast to have a 20-30 percent slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Today: 99/77, Thursday: 95/77, Friday: 94/77, Saturday: 98/77, Sunday: 98/76.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Mostly dry weather is on tap for today across the forecast area as high pressure begins to lose its grip on the region. But high temperatures are again forecast to run in the mid to upper 90s. With dew point temperatures expected to be in the lower to mid 70s during the early afternoon, apparent temperatures will approach the heat advisory criteria of 108 degrees. Therefore a heat advisory will likely be issued for much of the area for this afternoon. Moisture associated with Tropical Depression Five is forecast to spread across the area by late this afternoon. Rain chances will be increasing near the coast from Grand Chenier eastward. The depression is forecast to move northwest across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning before turning northward and approaching the central Gulf coast. The system is also forecast to strengthen and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast from Intracoastal City eastward. At this time it appears that tropical storm conditions are not likely over the region, although they will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon, mainly in gusts. Rainfall accompanying the system could be heavy at times over the Atchafalaya Basin, with storm total amounts averaging 2 to 3 inches. Locally higher amounts can be expected.
NORTHERN LOUISIANA: Today through Sunday has a 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms each day.
Temperatures: Today: 100/78, Thursday: 100/77, Friday: 98/78, Saturday: 99/76, Sunday: 98/76.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Upper level high pressure remains in control at this time. As the mid-summer tropical air combines with temperatures around 100 degrees today, the heat index values will range from 105 to 109 degrees, mainly during the afternoon. There may be isolated showers and thunderstorms today in this moist and unstable air. Deadly lightning and brief heavy rainfall of one half to near one inch will be possible with isolated thunderstorms, along with wind gusts to near 40 mph around any heavy downpours. The heat will continue through this week. However, a better chance for showers and thunderstorms will approach from the southeast with a tropical low spinning toward the northern Gulf coast. Also, during the course of the weekend, a cold front will edge into the four-state area from the north and struggle down toward I-20 by early next week. Widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorm will remain in the forecast. As usual with thunderstorms, lightning can be deadly and winds may become gusty in and near any heavy down pours.
Captain Tommy C. Boyett, LEM
Director, West Feliciana OHSEP
P.O. Box 796
9938 West Feliciana Parkway
St. Francisville, LA 70775
Cell (225) 245-4221
Office (225) 635-6428
Fax (225) 635-6996
tboyett@wfpso.org
tcboyett@gmail.com
wfpeoc@att.net
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