Subject: LOUISIANA WEATHER
TROPICAL WEATHER:
As of 1 PM CDT, National Hurricane Center is reporting on three significant tropical systems listed below.
Invest 94, a low pressure system located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles west of southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula, is accompanied by a large area of showers and squalls. Satellite images indicate that there has been a gradual increase in organization today. However, the environment is not ideal for significant development. An Air Force plane is approaching the system and will help to determine if a tropical depression is forming and if so, watches or warnings could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast as early as this afternoon. There is a high chance, about 70 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Updates from National Weather Service are being provided to the Unified Command Group and, as a precaution, the State is conducting conference calls with the Southeast and Southwest Louisiana Hurricane Task Forces and will continue to conduct them as needed.
Although shower activity associated with a low pressure system about 850 miles east-northeast of the Leeward's Islands has increased a little today, the system remains disorganized. The low is forecast to move toward an environment that does not appear favorable for significant development. However, many of the global models continue to forecast formation. There is still a high chance, about 60 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the north and north northeast over the Atlantic.
Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the southern Windward Islands is moving westward at about 10 to 15 mph. Development, if any will be slow to occur. There is a low chance, about 10 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA: Today through Wednesday there is a 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday night through Friday there is a 40-50 percent a chance of thunderstorms. Friday and Saturday have a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Today: 97/76, Wednesday: 95/75, Thursday: 92/78, Friday: 93/78, Saturday: 95/78.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: High temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 90s across much of the area today. These high temperatures, combined with high humidity values, will result in heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. A heat advisory remains in effect through 8 pm tonight. Only isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area today. These thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe levels, but could be locally strong. These locally strong thunderstorms could produce frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy downpours of rain. A low pressure system is forecast to move west across the northern Gulf coast and will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, some storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA: Today and Wednesday there will be a 20-30 percent chance for thunderstorms with partly cloudy evenings. Thursday has a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms with a decrease to 20 percent in the evening. Friday and Saturday is forecast to have a 30 percent slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Today: 96/77, Wednesday: 96/78, Thursday: 94/78, Friday: 94/80, Saturday: 94/79.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: With afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, heat indices will run between 103 and 107 degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce gusty winds of 40 mph, frequent lightning and reduce visibilities to near zero. A developing low pressure area in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will head towards the Louisiana coast by Thursday. The main impact from this system will be an enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday and Friday. The stronger storms will produce gusty winds of 40 mph, frequent lightning and reduce visibilities to near zero.
CENTRAL LOUISIANA: Today through Saturday there will be a 20-40 percent chance for thunderstorms with some evenings having partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures: Today: 98/75, Wednesday: 99/76, Thursday: 97/77, Friday: 96/77, Saturday: 97/78.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: With afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, heat indices will run between 103 and 107 degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce gusty winds of 40 mph, frequent lightning and reduce visibilities to near zero. A developing low pressure area in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will head towards the Louisiana coast by Thursday. The main impact from this system will be an enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday and Friday. The stronger storms will produce gusty winds of 40 mph, frequent lightning and reduce visibilities to near zero.
NORTHERN LOUISIANA: Today through Saturday has a 20-30 percent slight chance of thunderstorms each day with some evenings having cloudy skies.
Temperatures: Today: 100/78, Wednesday: 100/78, Thursday: 101/78, Friday: 100/78, Saturday: 98/77.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Abundant moisture in the air and hot temperatures will combine to push heat index values into middle to upper 100s for much, if not all afternoon. There is a chance area-wide for some relief today with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as a weak disturbance aloft will help to lift the moist air. As the rain-cooled air comes back down, winds may gust to 40 mph and dangerous lightning could become frequent as storms mature, producing brief but heavy rainfall. The heat will continue in the short term through mid-work week. However, a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms will approach from the southeast as a weak tropical low spins toward the northern Gulf coast. There is a good chance that we could even see tropical cyclone development by midweek. Beyond the work week, a cold front will push into the four-state area from the north late this weekend and during early next week, helping to further suppress the heat. As usual with thunderstorms, lightning can be deadly and winds may become gusty in and near any heavy down pours.
Captain Tommy C. Boyett, LEM
Director, West Feliciana OHSEP
P.O. Box 796
9938 West Feliciana Parkway
St. Francisville, LA 70775
Cell (225) 245-4221
Office (225) 635-6428
Fax (225) 635-6996
tboyett@wfpso.org
tcboyett@gmail.com
wfpeoc@att.net
Posts
