SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA: Today will be partly sunny, with the evening having a 30 percent chance of showers. There will be a 100 percent chance for rain Thursday. Some of this rain could develop into sleet or snow after midnight Thursday into early Friday morning. Friday has a 30 percent chance of showers, and partly cloudy in the evening. Saturday will be sunny and partly cloudy in the evenings. Sunday has a 30 percent chance of showers.
Temperature: Wednesday: 49/33, Thursday: 42/34, Friday: 45/36, Saturday: 56/37, Sunday: 59/34
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: A strong upper level storm system will approach the area tonight, with light rain spreading eastward from central Texas during the night. Very dry air at the surface may allow for some light sleet to mix with the rain at times across the lakes region of southeast Texas and in central Louisiana. No accumulation is expected. An intense Gulf low will bring widespread rain to the area from Thursday into Friday morning. Cold air at the surface and aloft will allow for a possible wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow across central Louisiana and perhaps the lakes region of southeast Texas, mainly from Thursday evening into Friday morning. The most likely area to see any wintry precipitation will be along and north of a line from DeRidder to Melville, where up to 1 inch of sleet and snow accumulation is possible. Cool and dry weather is expected on Saturday, before a cold front brings another chance for rain on Sunday.
The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City is currently at 5.78 feet (minor flood stage). The river is expected to fluctuate between 5.4 feet and 6.1 feet through Friday. Flood stage is 4 to 7 feet. At 5 to 6 feet, floodwall gates will be closed to protect against higher stages. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U.S. Coast Guard.
The Sabine River at Deweyville is currently at 24.34 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is 24 to 26 feet. The river is expected to drop to below flood stage (24 feet) by Friday. At 24 to 25 feet low-lying roads in southwestern Beauregard Parish including Robert Clark Road may have water over them.
The Calcasieu River at Oberlin is currently at 15.29 feet (moderate flood stage). The river will rise to 15.8 feet by Friday. Flood stage is 15 to 19 feet. Between 13 and 15 feet, minor low land flooding near the river will occur.
The Calcasieu River at Kinder is currently at 17.11 feet (minor flood stage). The river will drop to below flood stage by Friday. Flood stage is 16 to 20 feet. At 16 to 18 feet, flooding of wooded areas near the river will occur.
The Calcasieu River at Old Town Bay is currently at 4.4 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is 4 to 6 feet. The river is expected to rise to 5 feet by tomorrow and remain at that level through the week. At 4 to 5 feet minor flooding and water over lowest portions of Goose Ferry Road will occur. Cars should be moved to higher ground.
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA: Today will be mostly sunny during the day and mostly cloudy in the evening. Thursday through Friday there is a 60-100 percent chance of rain/sleet/snow in the forecast. Friday evening will clear up and be mostly cloudy. Saturday and Sunday will be mostly sunny.
Temperature: Wednesday: 51/33, Thursday: 47/35, Friday: 45/32, Saturday: 56/38, Sunday: 56/33
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: Thursday through Tuesday, an area of low pressure will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and move east across the northern gulf waters late Thursday and Friday. A cold air mass will be in place as moisture increases over the region. Light rain is likely during the afternoon on Thursday and some light sleet may mix in near Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. A mix of light rain, sleet and snow will be possible. Several inches of snow accumulation will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning across southwest Mississippi. Rain or snow is possible across metropolitan Baton Rouge, portions of the North Shore and areas just inland from the coast in southeast Mississippi. If more snow than rain falls, there could be light snowfall accumulations by Friday morning in these areas too. Farther south, areas south of Lake Pontchartrain and across the coastal waters are expected to see mainly rain from this system. However, some light sleet could mix in during the onset on Thursday afternoon. Any sleet is expected to fall on surfaces that will be well above freezing, so no significant icing of roads or bridges is expected in this area at this time. All precipitation is expected to end Friday morning west of Lake Pontchartrain and Interstate 55 and early in the afternoon over areas to the east and south. Marine hazards, the next low pressure system will produce hazardous winds and seas for small craft Thursday night through Friday night. Many rivers will remain in high flows or in flood.
The Mississippi River at Red River Landing is currently at 51.15 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is from 48 to 55 feet. The river is expected to rise to 51.5 feet by Friday. At 48 to 51 feet, access roads may be inundated and evacuation of all river islands should be complete. Protection of people and property in the river bottom land on the river side of the levees should be complete.
The Pearl River at Bogalusa is currently at 20.87 feet (minor flood stage). The river is expected to remain at its current level until Tuesday then drop to and remain at about 20.7 feet Thursday through Friday. Flood stage is 18 to 21 feet. Between 18.5 to 20 feet, woodlands and crop acreage along the river will be flooded. The Bogue Chitto wildlife management area will be inundated with water in recreational camps and over access roads.
The Pearl River at Pearl River is currently at 17.11 feet (moderate flood stage). The river is expected to remain there until Thursday then drop to 16.8 feet (minor flood stage) by Friday. Minor flood stage is 14 to 17 feet and moderate flood stage is 17 to 18 feet. Between 17 to 18 feet (moderate flood stage) improved roads near the river may be covered with low water. Gum Bayou may back up flooding the lower portions of streets in River Gardens Subdivision. Secondary roads to the river throughout Honey Island Swamp may remain inundated. Property in the vicinity of the Cage may be flooded threatening about 20 homes along the left bank.
CENTRAL LOUISIANA: Today will be partly sunny, with the evening having a 20 percent chance of rain/sleet mix. There will be a 60 percent chance for snow/sleet Thursday during the day with a 100 percent chance of snow and sleet in the evening moving on into Friday. Friday evening will clear up and will be partly cloudy. Saturday will be mostly sunny and partly cloudy in the evening. Sunday has a 30 percent chance of showers
Temperature: Wednesday: 49/32, Thursday: 39/32, Friday: 43/33, Saturday: 54/34, Sunday: 55/31
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: A strong upper level storm system will approach the area tonight, with light rain spreading eastward from central Texas during the night. Very dry air at the surface may allow for some light sleet to mix with the rain at times across the lakes region of southeast Texas and in central Louisiana. No accumulation is expected. An intense Gulf low will bring widespread rain to the area from Thursday into Friday morning. Cold air at the surface and aloft will allow for a possible wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow across central Louisiana and perhaps the lakes region of southeast Texas, mainly from Thursday evening into Friday morning. The most likely area to see any wintry precipitation will be along and north of a line from DeRidder to Melville, where up to 1 inch of sleet and snow accumulation is possible. Cool and dry weather is expected on Saturday, before a cold front brings another chance for rain on Sunday.
The Calcasieu River near Glenmora is currently at 14.91 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is 12 to 16 feet. The river is expected to drop to 13 feet by Friday. Between 12 and 14 feet, some roads upstream from Glenmora, including Strothers crossing road near the community of Calcasieu and Price Crossing Road near Hineston have water on them and are subject to being closed. Flooding of forested areas near the river may occur.
NORTHERN LOUISIANA: Today will be mostly sunny, with the evening having a 30 percent chance of snow and sleet. There is an 80 percent chance of snow and sleet with and increase to 90 percent in the evening. Friday has a 30 percent chance of snow, with mostly cloudy skies in the evening. Saturday will be mostly sunny and a 30 percent chance of rain in the evening moving on into Sunday.
Temperature: Wednesday: 45/30, Thursday: 40/30, Friday: 45/32, Saturday: 53/36, Sunday: 49/28
HAZARDOUS WEATHER: No hazardous weather to report
Bodcau Bayou at Bayou Bodcau Lake is currently at 182.07 feet (minor flood stage). Minor flood stage is between 172 and 192 feet. The bayou is expected to remain at this level through the week. Between 170 to192 feet, expect minor lowland flooding along the lake. Red Chute Bayou below the lake may be at bank full. Some secondary roadways may suffer flooding.
Bayou Dorcheat near Springhill is currently at 13.53 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is 11 to 18 feet. The bayou is expected to rise to 14 feet by Saturday and remain at that level the next few days. Between 11 and 18 feet, expect minor lowland flooding.
The Boeuf River at Fort Necessity is currently at 51.46 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is from 50 to 55 feet. The river is expected to drop to below flood stage by Friday. Between 50 and 55 feet, widespread flooding of farm and agricultural land may be occurring along and near the river.
The Mississippi River at Natchez, MS is currently at 48.5 feet (minor flood stage). Flood stage is from 48 to 51 feet. The river is expected to rise to remain at this level through Saturday. Between 48 and 51 feet, Carthage Point Road may become impassable.
3. HAZMAT: None
4. FIRE: None
5. MEDICAL: None
6. TERRORIST ACTIVITY: None
National Threat Level: Yellow (Elevated)
Transportation Safety Administration: Orange (High)
7. CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL, NUCLEAR, EXPLOSIVE: None
8. SAINTS SUPER BOWL XLIV CHAMPIONS !!!!
The GOHSEP Daily Operational Report is posted daily in WebEOC
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